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Case Study 作業代寫

    BBA315 BUSINESS FORECASTING [ ]  Semester 1 2013
    Case Study
    Australian Wine Industry
    Case Study    作業代寫
    The alcoholic beverages industry has undergone substantial changes in the last three
    decades and you will have to relate those changes to your data analysis. Data of sales of
    Australian wine and brandy can be downloaded from the ABS website. The following table
    shows the last four years of domestic sales of wine and brandy.
    DOMESTIC SALES OF WINE AND BRANDY BY WINEMAKERS
    Table Fortified  Sparkling -
    Bottle
    fermentation(a)
    Sparkling -
    Case Study    作業代寫
    Bulk
    fermentation(a)
    Carbonated Other
    wine
    products
    Total
    Wine
    Total
    Brandy(b)
    '000 L  '000 L  '000 L  '000 L  '000 L  '000 L  '000 L  '000 L al
    2009-10  395 908  16 297  19 860  20 252  14 014  4 448  470779  445
    2010-11  392 291  17 502  19 665  15 711  13 603  4 953  463725  416
    2011-12  386 495  15 680  17 744  17 317  12 399  4 710  454345  388
    2011
    December
    Quarter
    103 373  3 832  6 742  6 234  4 208  1 447  125836  125
    2012
    March
    Quarter
    87 511  3 048  3 328  3 040  2 473  936  100336  82
    June Quarter 97 549  4 213  3 464  4 043  2 799  1 192  113260  83
    September
    Quarter
    Case Study    作業代寫
    99 752  4 215  3 700  4 033  2 683  1 178  115561  96
    December
    Quarter
    99 646  3 976  6 837  6 407  3 884  1 401  122151  125
    (a) Spritzig table wines are included in table wine
    (b) Quantities on which excise duty was paid
    Jack’s Cellar Pty, Ltd
    Currently Jack’s Cellar Pty, Ltd sells all types of domestic Wine and Brandy. The purpose of
    this exercise is to analyse the total sales in the domestic wine and brandy industry in
    Australia over a period of 25 years. Your task is to analyse a time series data set of domestic
    wine and brandy sales in different time periods.
    BBA315 BUSINESS FORECASTING [ ]  Semester 1 2013
    The market shares for the last 7 years of Jack’s Cellar Pty Ltd are as follows:
    Date  Brandy (%)  Wine (%)
    Jun-05  5.02  4.8
    Sep-05  5.11  4.95
    Dec-05  4.51  4.5
    Mar-06  5.43  5.21
    Jun-06  4.88  4.67
    Sep-06  4.9  4.9
    Dec-06  4.8  5.3
    Mar-07  5.1  4.9
    Jun-07  4.85  5.5
    Sep-07  4.75  5.7
    Dec-07  5.1  4.9
    Mar-08  4.57  4.66
    Jun-08  5.1  5.7
    Sep-08  4.63  5.9
    Dec-08  5.1  6.1
    Mar-09  4.9  6.3
    Jun-09  4.5  5.5
    Sep-09  4.6  6.51
    Dec-09  5.1  6.32
    Mar-10  4.82  6.41
    Jun-10  5.17  6.81
    Sep-10  4.8  6.92
    Dec-10  5.21  7.24
    Mar-11  4.9  6.88
    Jun-11  5.1  7.21
    Sep-11  4.97  7.32
    Dec-11  4.86  6.95
    Mar-12  5.1  6.99
    Jun-12  4.45  7.2
    Sep-12  4.9  7.1
    Dec-12  4.85  7.3
    Specifically, in this task you have been asked to predict the likely potential total sales for the
    all types of domestic wine and brandy of this company for each quarter from March 2013 ‐
    Dec 2013 (i.e. four quarters). You will need to provide recommendations to the
    management on the quantitative outcomes associated with the segmentation outlined
    above. It is also important for you to include a qualitative analysis of the wine industry
    where relevant given current regulations, government policies, and economic
    circumstances. You should also provide an industry and market analysis, including an
    analysis of respective consumer behaviour. The qualitative analysis should be used to
    support the outcome of your quantitative analysis.
    BBA315 BUSINESS FORECASTING [ ]  Semester 1 2013
    In your role as a consultant to Jack’s Cellar Pty Ltd that produces wine, you will then have to
    come up with recommendations based on your analysis.
    Exercise steps (Minitab recommended):
    1.  Problem formulation and data collection
    Problem formulation is the first and most important step that must be taken in business
    forecasting. Based on the available information in this assignment you need to define the
    problem that must be solved. Thereafter, you need to collect the required data based on
    your problem definition.
    2.  Model building
    Construct a model based on your problem formulation that you have discussed under
    point 1 above. You must verify your model with applicable theory and justify why you
    have chosen that specific theory. Provide references to the relevant literature.
    3.  Data manipulation and cleaning
    One main purpose of data manipulation is to select all or subsets of available data in
    order to utilise accurate and relevant data for forecasting. Analyse and compare plots of
    the time series for wine sales based on several sets of time periods, for example: March
    1985 ‐ Dec 2012, January 1995 – Dec 2012, and January 2001 – Dec 2012. Provide
    correlograms for each time period and examine the type of data pattern.
    Comment on the nature of the time series plots.
    ? What factors are likely to have influenced the nature of the time series?
    ? What circumstances may have produced certain characteristics of the time
    series?
    Case Study    作業代寫
    ? Will those circumstances apply to future periods?
    ? What has been the likely impact of various government policies and are these
    factors likely to be relevant in the forecasting period?
    Note: some data may be appropriate only in certain historical periods, for example in
    forecasting the sales of wine, you may wish to use only wine sales data since the GST was
    introduced rather than all sales data over the past 25 years. You do not have to use all
    available data, but you need to evaluate and assess this by cleaning the data.
    BBA315 BUSINESS FORECASTING [ ]  Semester 1 2013
    4.  Choose several forecasting methods based on the data pattern
    With MINITAB 16 or the spreadsheet software, you should consider several forecasting
    methods that can be applied simultaneously. A method that produces accurate forecasts
    in one case may not be appropriate and produce accurate forecasts in another case.
    5.  Forecast past periods
    After you have examined the data with several forecasting methods, the next step is to
    forecast historical periods where the actual values are known. Compare the resulting
    errors for all chosen forecasting methods.
    6.  Examine an acceptable accuracy of forecasting
    See page 84 in Hanke and Wichern (2009): Determining the adequacy of a forecasting
    technique.
    7.  Determine the single best forecasting method
    Justify your choice of forecasting methods. Which one of these methods is the most
    accurate and adequate one for your forecast?
    8.  Forecast future periods
    Provide total sales (in litres) projections for the Australian wine and brandy industry for
    each quarter from March 2013 - Dec 2013.
    9.  Make a decision based on the forecasting results
    As a consultant, you are required to provide a prediction of the annual total sales growth
    for wine and brandy for 2013 in percentages.
    10.  Make recommendations in your role as a consultant (see ‘overview’)
    ? Suppose that the company plans to increase total wine and brandy sales in litres for
    March 2013 - Dec 2013by 7.5% (on average annually) from the previous year.
    Calculate the average annual growth in the period of March 2013 - Dec 2013 –
    please note that this analysis is not on a quarterly basis. Provide advice and
    justification to the company whether their annual target is actually achievable or
    not.
    ? Based on your analysis, make recommendations on the potential segmentation
    strategy and other marketing strategy decisions
    BBA315 BUSINESS FORECASTING [ ]  Semester 1 2013
    Format
    Case Study    作業代寫:
    Presentation/style of report and relevant findings will be important and assessed. This will
    include proper presentation of graphs, tables and charts used to highlight key points in the
    report. Different fonts and styles from contributions made by different students will be
    penalised. Your paper will need to be a management style report with academic rigour.
    Executive summary:
    Summarises the report in one page.
    Introduction:
    Outlines the general background that is relevant to the current issues
    The purpose of the study
    Problem definition
    Methodology:
    Outlines the process of the data analysis
    Justifies why you have chosen the forecasting methods you are applying and explain the
    reasoning behind why you have picked them
    Outlines any limitations of the forecasting approach used and any improvements that could
    be made to the process
    Results:
    Describes and outlines key findings (e.g. forecasts)
    Uses plots, graphs, summary tables and other evidence to highlight key discussion points
    Conclusions and recommendation: contains key recommendations and limitations
    Appendices: contains additional material not previously shown
    References
    Page limit:
    Case Study    作業代寫
    Your report must not exceed 10 pages single‐spaced, excluding appendix and references.
    BBA315 BUSINESS FORECASTING [ ]  Semester 1 2013
    Specific assignment instruction:
    1. Students have the option of working in groups of no more than 3.
    2. A cover sheet must be attached with the allocated group number (if working in a
    group), names and SIDs of all participating students. Any intra‐group allocation of tasks
    must be sorted within the group. The number of people in the group will not be a
    consideration for the awarding of marks for the assignment. Assignments must be the
    own work of the students whose names appear on the assignment. Plagiarism, copied
    or paraphrased assignments will be heavily penalised with potential loss of all marks
    and further disciplinary action.
    3. All assignments should be submitted to the BBA315 assignment boxes at BESS (Business
    and Economics Student Services) located on the ground floor of building E4B by the
    time indicated on the due date (5 June 2013, 4.30pm) and must be submitted as a soft
    copy to the TURNITIN (iLearn). Late assignments will attract a 20% penalty for each day
    late. It is each student’s responsibility to ensure his/her or their group assignment is in
    the correct assignment box. NO EXCUSE will be accepted for putting an assignment into
    a wrong box and consequential late submission of the assignment. Further, excuses
    such as loss of computer files or similar will not be accepted as reason for a late
    submission without penalty.
    4. The choice of appropriate data needs to be justified and relevant data selection is part
    of the assessment process. In this assignment, forecasts for the relevant target variable
    will be related to forecasts for relevant variables potentially available through ABS, RBA
    or other suitable websites. It is often the case in forecasting and other research that
    available data will not perfectly match the requirements. The forecaster/researcher
    needs to make a judgment on suitable data that approximate the exact variable (s)
    needed.
     
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